I have had a passion for the weather since a very young age and am a degreed meteorologist. Weather Safety Again,, freak events are possible, and one storm could dump that amount all in one sitting.eval(ez_write_tag([[468,60],'carolinawxauthority_com-medrectangle-3','ezslot_7',121,'0','0'])); The I-85 Corridor is expected to be the most active since 2009-10 and 2013-14. NOAA Weather Radio. Image courtesy of the NWS Climate Prediction Center.
The official NWS Climate Prediction Center outlook is for an enhanced potential of above-normal temperatures this winter. Submit Storm Report, Current Conditions
Posted on November 24, 2019 November 24, 2019 Author Michael Griffith. Regional Temps and Precipitation Climate Plots The Charleston area is expected to see no snow this winter, as they are expected to have below average amounts. The AMO began its most recent warm phase 25 years ago during the mid-1990s, and this warm period may continue for a few more years. It is impossible to pin down an exact number, so we are giving a range. The North Carolina outlook lines up with the federal Climate Prediction Center’s 2019-2020 winter outlook for the rest of the United States. Water temperatures across the Nino 3.4 region of the tropical east Pacific are only slightly above normal, and should be near normal through our upcoming winter season. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is a repeating climate pattern in water temperatures across the northern Atlantic Ocean.
Since in our previous winter outlook article we mapped out areas according to well above average, near average, above average, or below average, we took an average snowfall map into consideration. This video discusses climate conditions favored for the U.S., including Hawaii and Alaska. Local Hydro Information, Additional Information This ongoing trend toward warmer temperatures suggests an enhanced potential of warmer than normal temperatures for this upcoming winter. National Radar, Past Weather and Hydrology NWS Wilmington Radar NMME Model Precipitation Forecasts for the 2019-2020 Winter Season. CAROLINAS 2019-2020 WINTER OUTLOOK EXTRAVAGANZA. Enhanced National Radar National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Water temperatures averaged across the North Atlantic Ocean rise and fall in a cycle measuring approximately 60 years in length. December 2020. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) has impacts on the climate of the Carolinas. Observations Map I have a Bachelor of Science from Penn State University and a Master's from Plymouth State University. NMME Model Precipitation Forecasts for the 2019-2020 Winter Season. Local Hazards Updated outlooks of the potential for river flooding for all forecast points on the Cape Fear, Northeast Cape Fear, Lumber, Waccamaw, Pee Dee, Black, and Lynches rivers are available at this link: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/long_range.php?wfo=ilm&percent=75. The observed trend in temperatures for all seasons, including winter, is upward across the Carolinas and across most of the globe. We will be here to forecast amounts for each storm as they come, so stay with us! That is another reason why our official map had to be adjusted.eval(ez_write_tag([[250,250],'carolinawxauthority_com-box-4','ezslot_2',129,'0','0'])); The below map was released last week and shows the overall trend expected this winter compared to normal. Aviation “Normal” winter rainfall for our portion of the Carolinas is between 9 and 11 inches, distributed evenly across the three months of winter. Three of the seven climate models used by the NWS Climate Prediction Center show below-normal precipitation across the Carolinas, three show near-normal precipitation amounts, one is above-normal. Research & Page Author: Tim Armstrong Marine Obs (List) Multiple locations were found. Flood risk on the Lumber River at Lumberton, NC through January 2020. Orange = Chance of a Winter Storm. The official outlook for the winter is for equal chances of below, near, and above normal precipitation across North and South Carolina. Terms | Weather History Calendar Some mountain locations could receive record snow amounts, or at least since recent snowy winters. Now that doesn’t mean that a freak 12″ snowstorm can’t occur. Chance of Snow Storms this Winter Season. Two others are predicting near-normal temperatures. Satellite Tropical US Dept of Commerce Blue = Chance of a Snow Storm.
Our snow amount outlook could in fact be conservative if there is enough cold air with an active southern storm track. Chance is a prediction of how ideal the conditions are for a storm to enter the region. Marine In December of 2009, that snow season got started before winter officially began. Local Forecasts View all posts by Michael Griffith, Carolinas Winter 2019-2020 Total Snow Outlook, Halloween Chill Expected for the Carolinas, Rain Moves in Late Tonight into Early Sunday, Above Average Temperatures Expected Until End of Month, Halloween 2020 Carolinas Temperature Forecast, Potential Tropical Trouble to End October, Virginia 2019/2020 Winter Outlook; Snowiest Since 2013-14, Next System Moves Through Sunday; Colder Behind.
About; Help; Language. Image courtesy of the NWS Climate Prediction Center. Graphical "EC" indicates equal chances for below, near, or above normal precipitation.
NWS Product Guide NWS Wilmington, NC2015 Gardner DriveWilmington, NC 28405(910) 762-4289Comments? We are expected to be in a neutral to slight El Nino pattern, which favors an active storm track. Forecast Graph/Tab/Text
Social Media Feeds Red = Chance of a Rain Storm. Expected conditions (temperature and humidity) are too close to predict the type of precipitation. Chance of Snow Storms for Raleigh, North Carolina covering the 2020-2021 Snow Season. As we head inland, the numbers jump a bit, and again these are expected season totals. NWS Video summary of NOAA's 2019-2020 Winter Outlook issued October 17, 2019. NOAA in the Carolinas Ocean temperatures within the tropical east Pacific are expected to run near normal this winter. Charlotte and Raleigh are expected to see 6-12″ with the immediate Raleigh area slightly less, and this includes the suburbs of both cities. October 2020 Long Range Weather Forecast for Appalachians; Dates Weather Conditions; Oct 1-3: Rainy, mild: Oct 4-6: Rain north, sunny south; mild: Oct 7-9 Briefing Page Southeast Regional Radar German; English; French; Italian; United States | Raleigh, North Carolina .
The two locations with moderate potential to experience river flooding are the Lumber River at Lumberton, NC, and Black Creek near Quinby, SC, both shown above. Education and Outreach
All that we would need would be cold air to either be in place or wrap in behind, and some of the amounts of snow could be staggering. May result in Rain, Snow, or Sleet. With the absence of El Nino or La Nina this winter, there is little predictability in seasonal winter rainfall across the Carolinas. The mountains will be the winners, as is expected most winters. Image courtesy of the NWS Climate Prediction Center. CAROLINAS 2019-2020 WINTER OUTLOOK EXTRAVAGANZA. We tried out best to talk some honest numbers in our latest outlook below. National Weather Service Our thinking is that most locations near the coast in the light blue will be near normal this year, with some northern locations seeing slightly above normal. Please Contact Us. Sorry, the location you searched for was not found. Surf Forecast However we also think it will be one of the snowiest winters since 2013-14, and that is not included below. Daily Temp and Precip Summary Marine Obs (Map) eval(ez_write_tag([[336,280],'carolinawxauthority_com-banner-1','ezslot_1',130,'0','0']));This season is expected to be snowy and active for the Southeast. This is because the southern branch of the jet stream will remain active due to slight El Nino conditions, and will send storm systems across the Southeast. Experimental Unofficial Long-Lead Forecasts : Two-Class Probabilities: Issued: Oct 15 2020: Temperature: November 2020: November-December-January 2020/21: December-January-February 2020/21: January-February-March 2021: February-March-April 2021: March-April-May 2021: April-May-June 2021: May-June-July 2021 : June-July-August 2021: July-August-September 2021: August … Outlook made November 1, 2019.
Local Observations (List) Past Significant Events For the Carolinas, temperatures this winter will have an enhanced potential to run above normal, while precipitation has equal chances to be below, near, or above normal during December, January, and February.
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